Best replica The Secret of an Investment Genius fpr sale online

ByElle Pop

Best replica The Secret of an Investment Genius fpr sale online

The Secret of an Investment Genius My boss told me to serve expensive wine because the more the financial experts I was hosting drank, the more they were likely to speak candidly. So I pulled out the corporate card, ordered grand cru Chablis, and authentic hermes replica told the waiter to pour liberally. As it turned out, Jeremy Grantham did not need alcohol to loosen his tongue. Before the fish was even served, Grantham had compared a popular investment theory to a vampire that won’t die, implied that a fellow diner’s gains were the product of luck, not skill, and made seemingly outlandish statements about the stock market. I’d gathered a few of Wall Street’s leading lights at New York’s “21” to address a pressing question: Was the bear market finally over? Most strategists were cautiously optimistic, predicting the S 500 index would end 2003 north of 1,000. If anything, they were overly cautious. But, he said, markets always revert to their long term averages. It was at that point I began to hero worship Jeremy Grantham. His prediction was so uncannily accurate, it seemed more like a Vegas magician’s trick than a market forecast. And it wasn’t a one off. For the decade, he called for emerging markets to return 7.8% a year. They logged 8.1%. small company stocks would return 2.5%; in fact, they returned 2.3%. Not Goldman Sachs, not Warren Buffett, not George Soros. Academics will tell you it’s not possible, and Wall Street doesn’t have the patience to look that far ahead anyway. Hell, most traders close out their positions before cocktail hour. In fact, in the late ’90s, Grantham paid dearly for being correct. He saw the Internet bubble inflating and kept GMO’s clients out of tech stocks. The only area of the stock market where GMO is predicting generous returns during the next seven years is emerging markets, which had a rough 2013. An index fund, it charges rock bottom fees of 0.33%. Its biggest positions include Taiwan Semiconductor, Russia’s Gazprom, and Brazil’s Banco Bradesco. The stockpickers at Harding Loevner Emerging Markets (HLEMX) have outpaced the index in the past three, five, and 10 years. But you’ll pay 1.49% per year to bet they can continue to do so. Should inflation return, it will be good to own hard assets like gold, oil, and wood because if the dollar loses value, well, such things are just worth more dollars. When the economy is booming, wood, like other commodities, is in demand. But wood is also nice to own when demand dries up because, unlike gold or oil, trees keep growing. GMO, which has more than $100 billion under management, just goes out and buys forests. For the rest of us, one imperfect but decent proxy is Plum Creek Timber (PCL), which owns and manages forests. It’s structured as a real estate investment trust and pays a decent 3.6% dividend. high quality stocksThis is a subjective category, and Grantham declines to offer much of a definition. He and others at GMO, however, have described Coca Cola, Microsoft, Procter Gamble, and Johnson Johnson as quality companies. GMO says this category is priced to return 3.3% a year after inflation. Without getting into the nitty gritty of its stock selection, it’s so demanding that fewer than 200 companies (out of 10,000) have a good enough track record to even merit consideration. And among its 28 holdings are Coke, Microsoft, and P Another option: Buy shares of Warren Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett collects quality companies like John Mayer collects ex girlfriends, and he owns Coke and P much else looks good to Grantham. He expects international stocks will return less than 2% a year and bonds will return close to nothing. There’s no need for speed, either. Add to your holdings the next few years through dollar cost averaging, and if the market dips, you’ll be buying cheaper. For more information please read our Privacy PolicyHow we use your email address.

About the author

Elle Pop author

Leave a Reply